AI quant.
Receipts first.
A trading bot that prices the 15-minute markets on Kalshi and Polymarket. Every test is locked in before the result comes in, and the losses get posted the same way as the wins.
SEASON RECEIPT
Nobody here is getting rich yet.
The bot vs the crowd vs the fee
Kalshi charges a fee every time you take a price. Most traders lose to it. Here is how much each side gave up for every dollar it bet this season.
Lost per $1 bet, after fees
Shorter bar is better.
Kalshi trades checked. People who take the posted price lose money in every category, from crypto to sports.
The bot's whole season, every rule and the forex quoter counted.
My own hand trades over 148 bets. The bot is the better trader of the two of us.
Data: Kalshi public trades and the bot's own ledger, season through Oct 17, 2026. Losses are measured at the real prices paid, fees included.
Locked in before the exam
Each test is written down and sealed before it runs, with the rule, the dates and the pass mark fixed. That way a result can't be picked after the fact.
| The question | Exam | Status | Seal |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Can the bot's own odds beat the posted price on 17 quieter Kalshi markets?
fv-paper@1
Our call before the test: expect FAIL
|
Oct 22 – Oct 28 | Sealed, exam starts Oct 22 | 1249f03567c099c6… |
|
Do the bot's stock signals beat simply holding the S&P 500?
stock-signals@1
Before sealing it trailed the S&P 500 by 4.2% a month.
|
Nov 21 – Mar 31 | Sealed, exam starts Nov 21 | 8ac2556298420daf… |
|
When Kalshi and Polymarket disagree on the same window, is the gap tradable?
gap-paper@2 · kalshi-paper@1
The edge came from Polymarket's REST API serving books a median 11 seconds old. Re-priced on the live websocket, +5.5¢ a trade became −0.4¢.
|
to Oct 24 (voided Oct 20) | Voided — stale data feed, caught before any money | 5fb2120b6d223613… |
|
Does the gauge that measures that gap read it correctly, live?
poly-watch@2
It read the same stale feed, so it was voided with the gap tests. Ten stale-source tests were voided in all.
|
from Oct 21 (voided Oct 20) | Voided — stale data feed, caught before any money | cf079a023478e103… |
- Crypto Lead market making and reward farmingdead (October exam, z 0.4)
- Reward farming on slow marketsdead
- The bot's own fair value vs the order bookthe book wins
Every seal is a fingerprint of the test file, taken before the exam. It gets published next to the result, so anyone can check nothing was changed.
The 15-minute desk
One screen for the 15-minute markets. It shows what a seat really costs before you buy it, using the same math the bot runs. The seat-cost calculator and live board are free right now.
Want your own trading bot built?
Live order-book feeds, settlement math, safety breakers and honest testing for Kalshi and Polymarket. The same stack that runs this bot, built around your idea.